The Agency Report 2019: Q2

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Q2 19 The Agency Report QUARTER 2Table of Contents02 Arizona Market Overview06 British Columbia Market Overview12 South Florida Market Overview16 Mexico Market…
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Q2 19 The Agency Report QUARTER 2Table of Contents02 Arizona Market Overview06 British Columbia Market Overview12 South Florida Market Overview16 Mexico Market Overview22 Park City Market Overview26 Turks & Caicos Market Overview30 East Bay Market Overview34 San Francisco Market Overview52 Los Angeles Metropolitan Market Overview84 Pasadena Market Overview88 The Valley Market Overview104 The Desert Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019ARIZNO. 3ZONASCOTTSDALE AND PARADISE VALLEY SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES2019 Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019A return to more moderate price growth in the second quarter of 2019 helped revitalize the market for single-family homes in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. Home sales picked up substantially from the start of the year and matched closing volume recorded in the second quarter of 2018. Prices experienced a healthy 3% increase as the luxury segment, comprising homes priced over $1 million, strengthened. Whereas an 8% surge in prices between Q1-19 and Q1-18 suppressedhome buying activity in the first three months of the year, a return to more measured growth in Q2 helped bolster home buying during the peak spring season. On the supply side, prices have surged 10% since Q2-18 suggesting that while tighter inventory has heated up the market, many sellers will likely need to adjust their expectations now that homes are sitting on the market longer.5-Year History FIVE-YEAR HISTORY3,750 3,750$1M $1,000,0003,000 3,000$800,000 $800K2,250 2,250$600,000 $600K1,500 1,500$400,000 $400K750$200,000 $200K750 00$0Q1-14 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q3-14Q4-14 Q4-14Q1-15 Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15 Q2-15Q3-15 Q3-15 SalesQ4-15 Q4-15Q1-16 Q1-16Q2-16 Q2-16Active UnitsActive UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ3-16 Q3-16Q4-16 Q4-16Q1-17 Q1-17Q2-17 Q2-17Median Sale Price Median Sale PriceQ3-17 Q3-17Q4-17 Q4-17Q1-18 Q1-18Q2-18 Q2-18Q3-18 Q3-18Q4-18 Q4-18Median Active PriceMedian Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19 Q1-19$0PriceUNITS$1.2M $1,200,000PRICEUnits4,500 4,500CONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES 2019 Market Overview While the condominium market in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley recorded a seasonal uptick in sales, affordability constraints suppressed condo buying in the second quarter of 2019. Compared to Q2-18, condo sales fell 8% largely driven by fewer sales at the lowest end of the segment—units priced under $300,000. Demand for condos remains strong however—buyers are snapping up units as fast as they were a year ago (41 days) and price negotiation continues to averageabout 2.4%—suggesting slower sales likely reflect the fact that many potential buyers are being priced out of the market.NO. 5$350,000750$300,000625$250,000500$200,000375$150,000250$100,000125$50,0000$0 Q2-14Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15Q2-15# of SalesQ3-15Q4-15 SalesQ1-16Q2-16Active UnitsActive UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Median Sale PriceQ4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Q1-19Median Active PriceMedian Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ2-19Price875PRICEUnits UNITS5-Year HistoryTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019BRITISH CNO. 7COLUMBIAVICTORIA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES (CA$)2019 Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019The second quarter of 2019 continued to highlight volatility in Victoria’s housing market. Policy implications from measures on both the national and provincial level, including the federal mortgage stress test (B-20) and British Columbia’s speculation and vacancy tax, have played major roles in the market’s recent upheaval. Although sales activity picked up from the first quarter of the year, the market for singlefamily homes recorded a considerable pullback in closings across all price segments in Q2-19, compared to the same period a year ago.Victoria’s housing market, generally considered to be overvalued after years of price appreciation, also experienced a moderate price correction in the second quarter with the median price settling at $790,000—down 3% from Q2-18. Looking ahead, Victoria will likely continue to see price corrections and slower home sales as it adjusts to the new political environment. Over the long term, the cooldown should help usher in an era of more measured growth.2,000$1.25M1,600$1M1,200$750K800$500K400$250K0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS5-Year HistoryCONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES (CA$)2019 Market Overview Much like the market for single-family homes, Victoria’s condo market recorded a sharp drop in sales—with fewer closings across all price segments—and a significant increase in the number of condos for sale in the second quarter of 2019, compared to the same period the previous year. The sharp spike in inventory can, in part, be attributed to both high prices and units sitting on the market longer. Condominiums also took about a week longer to sell. Given sales and inventory conditions in Q2-19, pricing indicators paint a more complicated picture for the market. Whereas prices typically fall in response to expandinginventory and slower sales, both the median inventory and sale price is up 5% compared to the second quarter of 2018. In this context, the significant pullback in closings can be attributed to price imbalances which have suppressed sales activity, though the implications from recent legislative measures have also played a role. Inventory prices have however remained flat since the fourth quarter of 2018, suggesting that while Victoria’s condominium market is expected to continue cooling, it may be on the cusp of seeing price corrections, which should help stimulate sales, though at a moderate pace.NO. 91,500$600K1,250$500K1,000$400K750$300K500$200K250$100K0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS5-Year HistoryNANAIMO & COWICHAN SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES (CA$)2019 Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019The market for single family homes in Nanaimo and Cowichan typically sees sales pick up in the second quarter following a slow first three months of the year. In 2019, the second quarter recorded a 34% increase in closings from the previous quarter, but sales activity proved to be sluggish by historical levels. The market experienced a significant pullback in home sales—down 23%—across most price segments and an increase in time spent on the market compared tothe second quarter of 2018. In this context, the uptick in the median sale price is in part a reflection of the sharp fall in the sale of homes priced under $500,000 rather than demand-driven price appreciation. Looking ahead, as new listings come to market and homes take longer to sell, the buildup in inventory is expected to translate into more substantial price corrections that will help stabilize the market at more moderate growth levels.5-Year History 1,600PRICEUNITS1,200 800 400 0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19CONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES (CA$)2019 Market Overview The condominium market in Nanaimo and Cowichan followed seasonal trend with momentum from the start of 2019 continuing through the second quarter of the year. However, despite recording a 5% increase in closings from the first quarter, Q2-19 sales activity remained sluggish by historical standards. Second-quarter condo sales in 2019fell by 28% compared to the same period in 2018. Similar to the market for single-family homes, slower sales and higher inventory suggest the uptick in the median sale price is in part a reflection of the significant fall in sales at the lower end of the market—units priced under $300,000.NO. 115-Year History2500Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$450K $400K $350K $300K $250K $200K $150K $100K $50K $0PRICEUNITS500THE AGENCY REPORT 2019SOUTH FNO. 13FLORIDASOUTH FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES2019 Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019The second quarter of 2019 saw South Florida’s housing inventory fall to its lowest level in five years tilting the market in favor of sellers. Although the market has strengthened since the start of the year, second quarter South Florida home sales were lower than a year ago. Tighter inventory helped fuel sellers’ expectations with the median price of active units skyrocketing. Buyers looking to purchase a home are now faced with inventory that is 31% more expensive than ayear ago. The narrowing listing discount and uptick in median price compared to Q2-18 suggest that demand remains strong despite rapid price appreciation, yet fewer sales suggest many potential buyers are being priced out. On the other hand, luxury home buyers are snapping up inventory at a record speed. Whereas the median number of days a home under $500,000 took to sell increased, homes above $1,000,000 sold faster.12,000$600K10,000$500K8,000$400K6,000$300K4,000$200K2,000$100K0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS5-Year HistoryCONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES2019 Market Overview Similar to the market for single-family homes, South Florida’s condominium market recorded a seasonal uptick in sales during Q2-19, but cooler market conditions compared to the second quarter of 2018. Home sales fell by 13% with fewer sales across all price segments. Meanwhile, prices skyrocketed, fueled by heightened seller expectations amid tighter inventory. Although condos continued to take57 days to sell, the market will likely need a price correction in order to stimulate stronger sales over the long term. NO. 15 PRICEUNITS5-Year History0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19THE AGENCY REPORT 2018MEXNO. 17XICOLOS CABOS SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES (US$)2019 Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019The market for single-family homes in Los Cabos strengthened in the first quarter of 2019 with sales up 6% from the previous quarter and up 19% from the first quarter of 2018. The sharp drop in price per square foot can be attributed to the higher proportion of large homes comprising quarterly closings. Whereas the median home size wasapproximately 2,250 square feet in the first quarter of 2018, the most recent quarter recorded a median size of 2,615 square feet. Although closings recorded in the MLS do not capture all sales activity, they are a useful indicator of market performance.5-Year History 1,200$800,000 $700,0001,000$400,000 $300,000400$200,000 200$100,0000$0 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15Q2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Q2-16Q3-16SalesActive Units Active Units# of SalesQ4-16Q1-17Q2-17Q3-17Median Sale Price Median Sale PriceSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ4-17Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18MEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGE Median DOM by Price Range 4405538945010150189216149200211Q2-192502152015Q2-181413030030218259298350403303414005011Q2-19Median Active Price50030Q1-19Median Active PriceSales by Price Range 60Q1-18429Q2-14Q2-19100 4 244 22461050 00 $0 - $249,999 $250,000 $499,999$500,000 $749,999$750,000 - $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 + $999,999 $1,999,999 $2,999,999$0 $249,999$250,000 $499,999$500,000 $749,999Q2-18$750,000 - $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 + $999,999 $1,999,999 $2,999,999PriceUNITS$500,000600PRICEUnits$600,000 800CONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES (US$)2019 Market Overview The condo market in Los Cabos experienced another strong quarter of sales with Q1-19 closings at their third highest level in five years. Price indicators, however, paint a more complicated picture for the coastal enclave. The snapshot captured in the sales table suggest a significant price correction in the market; however, a look at closings by price segment illustrates that demand for units at all price segmentsremained strong; the sale of luxury units, priced over $750,000, more than doubled in Q1-19 compared to the same period in 2018. Lower first-quarter prices are therefore likely a result of the unprecedented surge in units closing under $300,000 rather than a sign that demand is weakening for higher priced units.NO. 195-Year History $400,000700$350,000600$300,000500$250,000400$200,000300$150,000200$100,000100$50,0000$0 Q2-14Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15Q2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Q2-16Sales# of SalesQ3-16Active UnitsActive UnitsQ4-16Q1-17Q2-17Q3-17Median Sale PriceMedian Sale PriceQ4-17Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Q1-19Q2-19Median Active PriceMedian Active PriceSALES BY PRICE RANGEMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGE 944Median DOM by Price RangeSales by Price Range100060 50900 8004750Q1-18700 40733344 153140167156243344356324 224300265400 20054346610500184Q2-1914201320Q2-1841560030100 00 $0 - $299,999 $300,000 $399,999$400,000 $499,999$500,000 $749,999$750,000 - $1,000,000 - $2,500,000 + $999,999 $2,499,999$0 $299,999$300,000 $399,999$400,000 $499,999$500,000 $749,999$750,000 - $1,000,000 - $2,500,000 + $999,999 $2,499,999Q2-18 Q2-19PriceUNITS$450,000800PRICEUnitsFIVE-YEAR HISTORY 900PUNTA DE MITA AND PUERTO VALLARTA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES (US$)2019 Market Overview Home buying in Punta de Mita and Puerto Vallarta continued an upward trajectory in the second quarter of 2019. It is important to note; however, that because the MLS does not capture all real estate activity in the area, quarterly metrics do not paint a comprehensive picture of the local housing market. Instead, they provide insight in understanding the composition of home sales and allow inferences to be made when gauging the health of the market.the luxury segment, priced over $750,000, held steady. Though the luxury segment accounts for a small share of MLS closings, the market’s limited size renders the median sale price highly dependent on the specific composition of closings each quarter and susceptible to fluctuations from outlier sales. Meanwhile, inventory prices have broadly remained flat, at just under $400,000, despite a sharp fall in active units suggesting sellers have not changed their expectations about the market’s trajectory. In this context, tighter inventory can be understood as a reflection of the depletion of active listings as homes on the market sell—also helping to explain the pullback in home sales. While the MLS does not capture all closings, slower sales can in part be attributed to the fact that there are fewer homes available for buyers to purchase.THE AGENCY REPORT 2019Compared to the same period a year ago, the second quarter of 2019 experienced a sharp pullback in MLS closings, surge in median sale price, and tighter inventory. The market’s volatility, while alarming on the surface, is better understood when looking at sales by price segment. The share of homes at the lowest end of the spectrum, priced under $300,000, fell by more than half, while home sales in5-Year History $600K350$525K300$450K250$375K200$300K150$225K100$150K50$75K0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS400CONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES (US$) 2019 Market Overview Second quarter housing indicators are mixed for Punta de Mita and Puerto Vallarta’s condominium market. Although the MLS does not capture all real estate activity in Punta de Mita and Puerto Vallarta, housing metrics help frame broad trends in the market. Compared to the same period in 2018, condo sales fell 31% with fewer closing across all price segments. Condos also lingered on the market longer, with the typical unit taking an extra 34 days to sell in Q2-19 than inthe previous year. On the inventory side, the number of active units decreased sharply, but tighter inventory has not yet translated into higher asking prices, suggesting the decline is partially a reflection of homes moving off the market as they are sold rather than a market heating up. Sellers are however seeing buyers purchase at prices closer to asking—the median sale price ticked up and the listing discount narrowed.NO. 211,000$350K875$300K750$250K625$200K500$150K375$100K250$50K125 0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS5-Year HistoryTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019PARKNO. 23K CITYPARK CITY SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCES2019 Market OverviewTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019Following a sharp drop in inventory and a surge in prices at the start of the year, the second quarter of 2019 marked a return to more moderate real estate activity in Park City. Inventory levels and list prices are once again aligned with levels recorded in the second quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, a downward correction in median saleprice and widening listing discount helped spur home buying from the first quarter; however, sales activity remained below Q2-18, and homes took about a week longer to sell.510$3M425$2.5M340$2M255$1.5M170$1M $500K85 0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS5-Year HistoryCONDOMINIUM RESIDENCES2019 Market Overview The second quarter of 2019 recorded a 13% uptick in closings from the first three months of the year as spring home buying momentum and a price correction helped spur sales activity. Compared to the second quarter of 2018, however, housing indicators suggest a cooler market. Tighter inventory did little to tip the market in favor of sellers, instead buyers were able to negotiate prices lower as units lingered on themarket longer. Despite more favorable market conditions, sales in Q219 lagged behind Q2-18.NO. 25750$1.4M625$1.2M $1M500$800K375$600K250$400K125$200K0Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14Q4-14Q1-15# of SalesQ2-15Q3-15Q4-15Q1-16Active UnitsSALES BY PRICE RANGEQ2-16Q3-16Q4-16Q1-17Q2-17Median Sale PriceQ3-17Q4-17Q1-18Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Median Active PriceMEDIAN DOM BY PRICE RANGEQ1-19$0PRICEUNITS5-Year HistoryTHE AGENCY REPORT 2019TURKS &NO. 27& CAICOSProvidenciales, Turks & Caicos TURKS & CAICOS SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE OVERVIEW (US$)THE AGENCY REPORT 2019Single Family Homes drove the market in Q2 2019 with 67% of the total sales volume being in this sector. Within this it was the Luxury subsector that accounted for $47,660,500 in total sales volume. The Turks and Caicos Luxury Real Estate Market has been the driving force for some years and it continues to drive the market as a whole. Our beautiful beaches, proximity to the United States and Canada as well as the convenience of no currency controls means that visiting and purchasing in the Turks and Caicos is a goal for those who seek barefoot luxury only an hour and a half to three hours away. At the other end of the market there remains an opportunity for affordable homes, with only 11 sales under $500,000 having been recorded in Q2. This represents an area where the public and private sector should come together to ensure that the opportunity of home ownership is spread amongst the broader community and therefore easing the pressure on the rental market. TURKS & CAICOS CONDO OVERVIEW (US$) Condomin
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